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BALL FIVE: Playoff scenarios solved, maybe, but then again, maybe they’re not

I’m not the most proficient at math, but I’m going to give it a try and give you just where the Tiger football team can finish in the Class 11B Region 1 standings with a win over McLaughlin on Friday.
Maybe I am being a little presumptuous about the Tigers winning a game they haven’t played yet, but this group of young men seems focused on the task at hand, so presumptuous I will be.
Okay, here goes. The Tigers are going to end the regular season at 5-3. Aberdeen Roncalli’s season is done. They are 6-3. Unless something unforeseen happens, Groton Area will beat Redfield/Doland at home on Friday and finish the season at 5-3.
But, records are not the most important thing. Seed points are.
As of today, Roncalli has a seed point average of 41.0. The Tigers are at 40.571 and Groton is at 40.143. Those numbers are going to be different after Friday night. Each team has opposing teams on their schedule that are uncommon opponents. It’s the wins and losses in those games that will make the difference. The most important teams to the Tigers are Cheyenne-Eagle Butte, who needs to win at Crow Creek, Winner who needs a home win over Woonsocket/Wessington Springs/Sanborn Central and Mt. Vernon/Plankinton, who needs a home win over Beresford.
Let’s start with the Tigers. This is all assuming that win over McLaughlin. The Tigers need Cheyenne-Eagle Butte to beat Crow Creek, which I expect they will. That will raise the Braves’ record to 2-6 and give the Tigers 44 seed points. If the Braves lose, the Tigers will receive just 41 seed points. So, the Braves win and the Tigers end up with 331 seed points for an average of 41.375.
Roncalli’s uncommon opponent that matters is Woonsocket/Wessington Springs/Sanborn Central, who sits at 3-4. If Winner beats them, Roncalli will get 44 points for a win over a 3-5 team. Should WWSSC beat Winner (highly unlikely) and get to 4-4, Roncalli will get 47 seed points. Roncalli and Groton Area are already going to gain three points, because 3-4 Milbank is going to beat Sisseton to get to 4-4. I already have those figured in. If Winner beats WWSSC, Roncalli will have 331 seed points for a 41.375 average. That’s okay because we win head-to-head, the first tiebreaker.
Now to Groton Area and their uncommon opponent, Beresford. Beresford is 5-2 and playing an 7-0 Mt. Vernon/Plankinton. Go MVP. Should MVP win, Groton gets 36 points for its loss to Beresford, but if Beresford wins, Groton will get 39 points. A Beresford loss, Groton finished with 328 seed points for a 41.0 average. If Beresford wins, you guessed it, Groton will have 331 seed points and a 41.375 average.
Should that happen, Groton has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers.
The best thing for the Tigers is, of course, Cheyenne-Eagle Butte, Winner and Mt. Vernon/Plankinton all win and the Tigers finish as the number one seed. If the Tigers end up tied with Roncalli, they will be the number one seed. If they are tied with Groton Area they will be the number two seed.
Now if all three teams end up tied, your guess is as good as mine. With head-to-head being the number one criteria, wel,l the Tigers beat Roncalli, Roncalli beat Groton and Groton beat the Tigers, so as far as I can tell that is all a wash and the rest of the tiebreakers start to take effect.
Number two is if the one of the tied teams has an undefeated record. Nope.
Number three is most wins. Not that one.
Number four is most victories. Not that one either.
Number five is least losses. Nor that one.
Number six is common opponents. The common opponents are Redfield/Doland and Sisseton. Another wash.
Number seven is the average of the tying teams’ opponents’ seed average. That’s where Roncalli, I think has the edge. They have undefeated Canton (who play winless Wagner) on their schedule. Canton will get an extra point for going undefeated. That will give Roncalli the edge they need, like I said, I think.
But if all the wrong things happen and the Tigers, Roncalli and Groton are all tied, it could come down to the eighth criteria and that is a drawing.
Man, we don’t want that kind of drama, so go Cheyenne-Eagle Butte, go Winner and go Mt. Vernon/Plankinton, and then number one seed, here we come